Lenexa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

712
FXUS63 KEAX 141129
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Quiet weather with mild temperatures through Monday.

* Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3
  out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non-
  thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts
  possibly exceeding 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have exited well to the southeast
early this morning. A few light showers and sprinkles have
redeveloped across northwest MO but are of little consequence.
Drier air will work southeast during the next few hours and
clouds will clear. The rest of the day will feature ample
sunshine as high pressure builds in and much cooler
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

High pressure will settle overhead tonight, then shift to the
southeast Monday and Monday night. Clear skies, dry air, and
light or calm winds will bring lows into the low to mid 50s
tonight. Temperatures begin to rebound Monday as return flow
begins. Highs will climb close to 80. Moisture increases Monday
night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There may
be a few showers that develop late, but meager instability will
limit any thunder threat until Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The cold front from Monday night will stall Tuesday then wash
out as a trough swings east into the Great Lakes. Scattered
showers may build into a few thunderstorms during peak heating,
but forecast soundings indicate capping lingering for much of
the day and forcing along the front is lost as it washes out.
Therefore, PoPs remain low and impacts should be minimal.

By Tuesday night, another trough will start digging into the
northern Plains. Low pressure will develop over the Dakotas by
early Wednesday morning, then track east to Iowa or southern
Minnesota Wednesday evening, then lower Michigan early Thursday
morning. Moisture advection will ramp up late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms
should begin developing across Missouri Tuesday night on the
nose of a 50 kt LLJ over KS. Strong capping will remain in place
through most of Wednesday morning as an EML overspreads the
area. This should keep coverage limited until late morning or
afternoon. Strong low level mechanical mixing, an easing of the
EML, and increasing surface moisture will help reduce capping
through the day. CAPE will increase to greater than 3000 J/kg in
the presence of 45+ kts of shear. The parameter space suggests
supercells are possible initially with all severe weather
threats possible. With time, storms may organize into a strong
MCS capable of widespread wind damage given the strength of the
500 and 850 mb jet streaks, 80-90 kts and 40-50 kts, respectively,
across northern MO. In addition, forecast soundings indicate
40-50 kt gradient winds within the mixed layer. Wind gusts may
exceed 45 mph outside of any thunderstorms, so it wouldn`t take
much for storms to produce severe gusts given the background
wind field.

The cold front will advance south behind the storms Wednesday,
but will slow or stall across southern MO Wednesday night and
Thursday. Storms may linger south of I-70 into Thursday before
high pressure building in gives the front an extra boost to push
it farther away. The rest of the week looks quiet again with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Mid level clouds are clearing from northwest to southeast early
this morning. FEW-SCT diurnal CU around 5kft will develop this
afternoon. Northwest winds 10-15 kts will become light and
variable this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff